I keynoted alongside legendary pilot Chesley Sullenberger recently. His "Miracle on the Hudson" story struck me as a powerful metaphor for navigating uncertainty.

Leading a high-performance team during uncertain economic times can feel like piloting an aircraft through turbulent skies. Conditions are unpredictable, the flight path constantly shifts and your crew closely monitors every move you make to gauge their next steps.

Recent data highlights this turbulence: U.K. business activity dropped sharply in April 2025, marking the first decline in 17 months, while the U.S. economy saw consumer confidence hit a two-year low near the same period, and GDP growth forecasts were revised downward amid escalating trade tensions. This downturn was driven primarily by struggles in the services sector, a critical component comprising three-quarters of the U.K. economy, severely impacted by global trade tensions intensified by Donald Trump's tariff campaign. Hedge fund veteran Paul Tudor Jones recently warned that U.S. stocks might decline significantly by year-end—even if the Trump administration eases tariffs on Chinese goods.

Leadership during uncertainty isn't about predicting future turbulence—it's about providing clear and consistent guidance. Effective leaders today should act like beacons, offering steady signals about critical metrics and priorities rather than pretending to forecast unpredictable events.

In an effort to reassure, many leaders flood teams with excessive updates, data, dashboards and updates, ironically creating confusion instead of clarity. Research consistently shows that simplicity and clarity boost decision making efficiency, particularly during crises. Communicate less frequently but more effectively; your goal is meaningful connections rather than overwhelming volume.

It's counterintuitive, but turbulence demands rapid decentralisation. Successful pilots in uncertain skies delegate swiftly and empower their crews to make critical decisions independently. The pandemic highlighted that waiting for complete information often stalls momentum; decisive action—even imperfect—can preserve agility.

Preparation is key. Teams should cultivate "muscle memory" for crisis response during stable periods, not when turbulence hits. Similar to how pilots routinely practice emergency procedures on simulators to ensure calm, automatic responses mid-flight, businesses must develop and rehearse contingency plans regularly.

Leadership, especially during crises, shouldn't be a solitary effort. Top-performing crews rotate responsibilities, creating resilience through distributed leadership. Empower your team members to take turns piloting, effectively turning leadership into a relay rather than a marathon.

During the Covid-19 pandemic, companies that thrived were often those that flattened their hierarchies, such as U.K. supermarket giant Tesco, empowering local managers to make rapid decisions. This strategy resulted in quicker stock adjustments and more responsive staffing. Yet today, facing a new type of economic crisis, many organisations seem to have forgotten these valuable lessons.

Today's uncertainty isn't merely economic—it's deeply psychological. Fear of the unknown, driven by economic instability and geopolitical shifts, can paralyse teams. Leaders must shift their focus from attempting to assert control to establishing trust. Crews that trust each other and their leaders navigate crises better because they instinctively know what to do even when clear instructions are unavailable.

Ultimately, in turbulent times, effective leadership isn't about controlling every decision—it's about building a resilient, empowered team capable of acting independently. When the flight plan disappears, trust ensures your people become the compass.

For more research and similar articles by David Meade, head over to Forbes.com.